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The global transport industry is investing heavily in the next generation of low-carbon assets.

Shipowners are ordering alternative-fuel vessels. Airlines are renewing fleets with more efficient aircraft. Road freight operators are introducing electric trucks and exploring hydrogen. Manufacturers are developing technologies designed to reduce emissions over the entire lifecycle of transport operations.

But there is a fundamental challenge.

The global transport fleet is enormous and replacing it will take decades.

Ships, aircraft, trucks, locomotives and other commercial assets are expensive, long-lived investments. Many will remain operational well into the 2030s and beyond. This means the transition to net zero cannot depend entirely on new asset deliveries.

The existing fleet must also become cleaner.

Transport assets typically have long operational lifespans.

Commercial ships can operate for 20 years or more. Aircraft may remain in service for several decades, while heavy-duty trucks and other commercial vehicles are often replaced on shorter but still significant cycles.

This creates a timing challenge.

Even if every new asset entering the market from today were significantly cleaner, the existing fleet would continue generating emissions for years.

The International Maritime Organization has recognised the importance of improving the efficiency of the existing global fleet through measures including energy efficiency standards, carbon intensity indicators and operational improvements.

The same principle applies across other transport modes.

Decarbonisation requires a two-track approach: accelerating the deployment of cleaner new assets while reducing emissions from those already in operation.

The fastest emissions reductions do not always require entirely new technologies.

Operational efficiency can deliver meaningful improvements across transport systems.

In shipping, measures such as route optimisation, slow steaming, weather routing, hull improvements and propeller upgrades can reduce fuel consumption.

In aviation, airlines are improving operational efficiency through optimised flight planning, lighter materials and more efficient aircraft.

Road freight operators are using telematics, route optimisation and driver-assistance systems to reduce fuel consumption.

These measures may not eliminate emissions, but they can reduce the carbon intensity of existing operations while more transformative technologies scale.

Retrofitting is becoming an increasingly important component of the transition.

For ships, technologies such as energy-saving devices, advanced coatings, air lubrication systems and onboard carbon capture are being explored alongside fuel conversion and engine modifications.

Some vessels are also being prepared for future alternative fuel use through dual-fuel engine configurations.

The economics of retrofitting, however, vary significantly.

An older vessel may not justify major investment if its remaining commercial life is limited. A newer asset, by contrast, may offer a more attractive opportunity for upgrades that extend its useful life while reducing emissions.

This makes asset age, expected utilisation and future regulatory requirements important factors in investment decisions.

Carbon capture technologies are attracting growing interest as a potential solution for existing assets that cannot transition quickly to zero-carbon fuels.

Onboard carbon capture systems aim to capture CO2 from exhaust gases before it reaches the atmosphere.

The technology remains at an early stage of development in maritime transport, with significant questions surrounding energy requirements, equipment size, storage capacity and the availability of infrastructure to handle captured CO2.

However, it illustrates an important reality: the transition will likely involve a portfolio of solutions rather than a single pathway.

Alternative fuel availability is expected to develop unevenly.

Major ports and industrial centres may gain access to green methanol, ammonia or hydrogen derivatives before smaller or less-connected locations.

This means existing vessels and vehicles may continue relying on conventional fuels in some markets while cleaner alternatives become available elsewhere.

The result is likely to be a prolonged period of technological coexistence.

Transport operators will need flexible strategies that allow them to navigate this uneven transition.

Retrofitting the existing fleet presents a major financing challenge.

Banks and investors must determine whether investment in an older asset will generate sufficient returns over its remaining operating life.

There is also a risk that regulatory changes could make certain assets commercially unattractive before retrofit investments are fully recovered.

This is where transition finance could become increasingly important.

Financial instruments designed specifically for emissions reduction in hard-to-abate sectors could help operators fund efficiency improvements and retrofit projects while reducing the risk of premature asset retirement.

Regulation is already changing the economics of existing fleets.

Carbon pricing, emissions standards and fuel regulations increasingly create financial incentives for operators to reduce emissions.

The European Union's emissions trading system, for example, has introduced a direct carbon cost for shipping emissions within its scope. FuelEU Maritime is also encouraging reductions in the greenhouse gas intensity of energy used onboard ships.

Such measures can improve the business case for efficiency investments while increasing the cost of maintaining inefficient assets.

This trend is likely to continue across transport sectors.

There is an important balance to maintain.

Replacing existing assets too quickly can create significant capital requirements and embodied emissions associated with manufacturing new equipment.

In some cases, upgrading an existing asset may deliver a better environmental outcome than replacing it prematurely.

The optimal strategy therefore depends on the asset, technology, operating profile and regulatory environment.

This is another reason why the transition cannot be managed through a single model.

The global transport industry is likely to experience a two-speed transition.

New assets will increasingly incorporate low-carbon technologies, while existing fleets will gradually improve through efficiency measures, retrofits and alternative fuels.

The speed of this process will vary by region and sector.

Developed markets with strong infrastructure and access to capital may move faster, while emerging markets could face longer transition periods due to financing and infrastructure constraints.

Policy frameworks will need to account for these differences without compromising overall climate objectives.

The transition to net zero will not happen when the last conventional ship, aircraft or truck leaves service.

It will happen through a gradual reduction in the emissions intensity of the entire global transport system.

That requires action today.

The existing fleet represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Efficiency measures can deliver immediate reductions.

The key will be determining which assets should be upgraded, which should be replaced and where investment can generate the greatest emissions reductions.

The global transport transition cannot wait for the next generation of assets.

Ships, aircraft and vehicles already in operation will remain part of the global economy for many years, making their emissions performance critical to the pace of decarbonisation.

New technologies will be essential, but they must be combined with efficiency improvements, retrofitting and smarter asset management.

The path to net zero will therefore be shaped by two parallel transformations: building the low-carbon fleet of the future and improving the fleet that exists today.

The organisations that manage both effectively will be better positioned to navigate the transition while maintaining operational resilience and commercial competitiveness.